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A Top Down View of the Earnings Surge

Episode 347

The earnings season has started with a blast. As of Friday morning, 49 of the S&P500 companies had reported second-quarter earnings, with 85% beating…

3 months, 1 week ago

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The Fed Communications Debate: Bernanke Versus Warsh

Episode 346

Alan Greenspan, who served as Fed Chairman for almost 20 years, died last month at the age of 100. He was a talented and faithful public servant who …

3 months, 3 weeks ago

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Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market

Episode 345

Despite very average economic performance, consumer sentiment remains at extraordinarily low levels. While there are many interesting aspects to this…

3 months, 3 weeks ago

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The Healing of Housing

Episode 344

In the pantheon of running injuries, there is a well-established hierarchy. A recreational runner, finishing any marathon, or exerting themselves at …

4 months ago

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The MOU and Warsh: A Changing Macro Landscape

Episode 343

Last week, as a frothy stock market continued to zigzag across a high plateau, two events occurred with significant implications for the macroeconomi…

4 months, 1 week ago

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The Inflation Outlook and Fed Policy under New Leadership

Episode 342

Last Wednesday’s CPI report, while not a surprise, still showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% - higher than in any month since April, 2023.…

4 months, 2 weeks ago

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Investing in a Divergent Economy

Episode 341

Two weeks ago, Sari and I took a vacation - an extended road trip down the East Coast as far as Charleston and then inland back to New York through t…

5 months ago

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Five Scenarios for the Federal Debt

Episode 340

The Financial Accounts of the United States is a quarterly Federal Reserve publication containing a great many large numbers but very little commenta…

5 months, 1 week ago

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Quarter Days and the Economic Outlook

Episode 339

In 19th century English novels, so-called “quarter days” often provided a chronological backdrop to the plot. A relic of medieval times, the quarter …

5 months, 4 weeks ago

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AI, Inflation and Interest Rates

Episode 338

On Tuesday, the Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings to consider the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair. His confirmation will…

6 months, 1 week ago

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