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How To Prepare For Tariff Day
Next week will be crucial for markets as Trump is set to announce (or disappointingly not announce) tariffs.
In this piece I will highlight the rationale behind my base case scenario and its impact on…
Published on 8 months, 2 weeks ago
What To Buy For A Macro Portfolio In 2025
Good morning, this is Alf - welcome back to The Macro Compass!I wish you a fantastic year ahead: follow your passions, keep learning, and don’t drink cappuccino after 11am.
In this macro piece, we wil…
Published on 9 months ago
A Fresh Look At Bond Markets
Looking back at the 2015-2021 period when I traded bond markets at a large bank, it was quite boring.
Rates were mostly stuck around 0% at the front-end, and to make money you had to find small disloc…
Published on 9 months, 4 weeks ago
Macro Clouds On The Horizon
The key macro event of 2024 is approaching: US elections are around the corner.
Next week I will release a deep research piece on US elections, which will be centered around the key questions looming …
Published on 11 months, 2 weeks ago
The Big Chinese Bazooka
The Chinese real estate market is de-leveraging very hard.
Economists estimate Chinese households have suffered $10+ trillion of wealth losses as a result. There is now a strong urge to stop the blee…
Published on 1 year ago
China Is Imploding
The news of the week is NOT the Fed cutting 50 bps - yes sure, that’s important but there is something much more relevant going on.
The Chinese economy keeps imploding from within.And we should pay at…
Published on 1 year ago
This is a True Regime Change
We are observing a true regime change in markets.And for macro investors, it’s incredibly important to stay vigilant and on top of our game at this stage.
It all starts with this: the Fed is behind th…
Published on 1 year ago
Panic Monday! (What Now?)
We just witnessed one of the biggest market panic events ever seen in the last 4 decades.
At some point, Asian markets were down 10%+ in a single session and the Japanese bank index saw the largest da…
Published on 1 year, 2 months ago
Macro Volatility Is Coming
The S&P500 realized volatility is below 10%.Credit spreads are super tight, and aside from some short-lived European political drama markets keep marching higher.
Yet, I think macro volatility is comi…
Published on 1 year, 2 months ago
Yes, But What's The Macro EndGame?
Hi everybody, and welcome back to The Macro Compass!
I am offering a FREE 2-weeks trial to my Institutional Macro Research service, which includes deep research pieces and a live Bloomberg chat with m…
Published on 1 year, 4 months ago