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“Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting ” by nikos, Peter Mühlbacher, Lawrence Phillips, dschwarz

[Conflict of interest disclaimer: We are FutureSearch, a company working on AI-powered forecasting and other types of quantitative reasoning. If thin…

1 year, 5 months ago

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“OpenAI o1 ” by Zach Stein-Perlman

This is a link post. ---

First published:
September 12th, 2024

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bhY5a…

1 year, 5 months ago

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“The Best Lay Argument is not a Simple English Yud Essay ” by J Bostock

Epistemic status: these are my own opinions on AI risk communication, based primarily on my own instincts on the subject and discussions with people …

1 year, 5 months ago

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“My Number 1 Epistemology Book Recommendation: Inventing Temperature ” by adamShimi

In my last post, I wrote that no resource out there exactly captured my model of epistemology, which is why I wanted to share a half-baked version of…

1 year, 5 months ago

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“That Alien Message - The Animation ” by Writer

Our new video is an adaptation of That Alien Message, by @Eliezer Yudkowsky. This time, the text has been significantly adapted, so I include it belo…

1 year, 5 months ago

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“Pay Risk Evaluators in Cash, Not Equity ” by Adam Scholl

Personally, I suspect the alignment problem is hard. But even if it turns out to be easy, survival may still require getting at least the absolute ba…

1 year, 5 months ago

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“Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel About the Risks of AI? ” by Nick Corvino

Intro

In April 2024, my colleague and I (both affiliated with Peking University) conducted a survey involving 510 students from Tsinghua University an…

1 year, 5 months ago

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“things that confuse me about the current AI market. ” by DMMF

Paging Gwern or anyone else who can shed light on the current state of the AI market—I have several questions.

Since the release of ChatGPT, at least …

1 year, 6 months ago

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“Nursing doubts ” by dynomight

If you ask the internet if breastfeeding is good, you will soon learn that YOU MUST BREASTFEED because BREAST MILK = OPTIMAL FOOD FOR BABY. But if yo…

1 year, 6 months ago

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“Principles for the AGI Race ” by William_S

Crossposted from https://williamrsaunders.substack.com/p/principles-for-the-agi-race

Why form principles for the AGI Race?

I worked at OpenAI for 3 ye…

1 year, 6 months ago

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