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The Butterfly Effect in Poker. Plus: How To Think About Conspiracies.
Season 1 Episode 63
Nate and Maria share some updates from the final days of the World Series of Poker, and reflect on the importance of making peace with randomness. Then: the Trump administration’s sudden about face o…
Published on 2 months ago
Why did COVID Decision-Making Go So Wrong? (with David Zweig)
Season 1 Episode 62
Early in the COVID pandemic, the US closed schools and sent kids home. And then, the schools stayed closed—even as they began to reopen in other parts of the world. Experts and officials claimed that…
Published on 2 months, 1 week ago
Live from Aspen! Zohran Mamdani’s Win, and How To Communicate Probabilities
Season 1 Episode 61
Nate and Maria take a quick break from the World Series of Poker to tape a live episode at the Aspen Ideas Festival. They give some updates on a scandal at the World Series, then discuss Zohran Mamda…
Published on 2 months, 2 weeks ago
Iran: Don’t Rush To Judge A Dangerous Moment
Season 1 Episode 60
This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s strikes on Iran. How can we understand this developing situation, without falling prey to our own biases? And when nuclear weapons are involved, how do risk …
Published on 2 months, 3 weeks ago
Cautionary Questions with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Season 1
Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed?
We're sharing this sp…
Published on 2 months, 3 weeks ago
Does Ranked Choice Voting Work? Plus, New AI Predictions
Season 1 Episode 59
Nate and Maria report back on the ups and downs of the WSOP. Then, they discuss ranked choice voting and the upcoming New York City mayoral primary. This voting system is supposed to help a consensus…
Published on 3 months ago
This Year’s World Series Of Poker Is Different
Season 1 Episode 58
Nate and Maria are back in Las Vegas for the World Series of Poker 2025. They discuss a key rule change that will have a major effect on their strategy. Then, they’re joined by a Risky Business liste…
Published on 3 months, 1 week ago
An Elon Musk Report Card
Season 1 Episode 57
Elon Musk has left the Trump administration. Nate and Maria talk about his brief but influential tenure, and discuss why overconfidence is a particular problem for people like Musk. Plus, they answer…
Published on 3 months, 2 weeks ago
Why ChatGPT Sucks at Poker
Season 1 Episode 56
ChatGPT is amazing at many things…but it can’t seem to figure out poker. Nate and Maria explain why, and talk about the implications for artificial general intelligence. Plus, they discuss Trump vs. …
Published on 3 months, 3 weeks ago
Motivated Reasoning in the Biden Campaign, Silicon Valley, and Beyond
Season 1 Episode 55
We tend to use logic to reach conclusions that agree with our biases. Psychologists call this motivated reasoning. Today, Nate and Maria talk about motivated reasoning in the Biden campaign and Silic…
Published on 3 months, 4 weeks ago