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The Sin of Wages: A Last, Bad Excuse for Monetary Tightening

Episode 226

Over the centuries, an abiding tension among many major religions has been the pendulum of severity. One era will be marked by a relaxed view, where …

3 years, 4 months ago

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The Investment Implications of Consumer Gloom

Episode 225

When I first arrived in this country, 40 years ago this summer, my strongest impression was that America was a land of optimists. European economists…

3 years, 4 months ago

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Waiting for a Negative

Episode 224

I have a sad tale to relate.  After dodging Covid for the last three years, my wife Sari and I were at a wedding two weeks ago and the virus decided …

3 years, 4 months ago

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The Recession Questions: Yes, No, When and How Bad?

Episode 223

One of the advantages of being back in the office, when I am actually in the office, is I get to hear a variety of opinions.  These opinions are shar…

3 years, 4 months ago

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Cooler Inflation and Slower Growth should Convert a Fed Skip into a Fed Pause

Episode 222

Markets in the week ahead will be focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. We expect the Fed to leave the federal funds rate unchanged although both the …

3 years, 5 months ago

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The Steady Normalization of the U.S. Labor Market

Episode 221

In 1787, on the last day of the Constitutional Convention, a lady asked Benjamin Franklin what form of government had been agreed to.  He famously re…

3 years, 5 months ago

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Sizing up the angles on Fed policy

Episode 220

I am shockingly, comically bad at golf.  However, that doesn’t stop me from occasionally watching more gifted souls play the game. 

One of their tech…

3 years, 5 months ago

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Slow-Motion Slowdown

Episode 219

Across the economy, the outlook is for slower growth.  Slower growth in demand, in employment, in profits and in inflation.  Recession is by no means…

3 years, 5 months ago

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Debt-Ceiling Cliff Dancing

Episode 218

On Ireland’s Atlantic seaboard, ten miles west of the town of Lisdoonvarna, stand the majestic Cliffs of Moher.  They are a popular tourist attractio…

3 years, 6 months ago

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When Money Stops Talking

Episode 217

The quantity of money was a big issue in the background of my childhood. There were no money machines or credit cards (at least in our house). So eve…

3 years, 6 months ago

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