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The Right Time to Cut Rates

Episode 256

Next Monday, I once again get to lace up my shoes and join my friends from the Dana-Farber team in running the Boston Marathon.  This year will be pa…

2 years, 7 months ago

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Wage War

Episode 255

When I was nine, my father was elected to the Irish parliament and joined the new government.  Not long after that, my history teacher, a man of the …

2 years, 7 months ago

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Dot-Plot Danger and QT Limits

Episode 254

This week, investors will be focused on the Fed’s second Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year.  They are widely expected to make …

2 years, 7 months ago

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From Business Cycle to Stretched-Out Expansion

Episode 253

Financial reporters and market strategists often argue about whether we are “early-cycle”, “mid-cycle” or “late-cycle”.  However, these perspectives …

2 years, 8 months ago

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Japanese Lessons

Episode 252

On Friday, December 29th, 1989, the Nikkei 225 stock index hit an all-time high of 38,957.  It then began to fall and it took until February 22nd of …

2 years, 8 months ago

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The Investment Implications of the Migration Surge

Episode 251

In last week’s article and podcast, I looked at the potential path for the U.S. economy over the next two years, noting that the outlook suggested a …

2 years, 8 months ago

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The Pressures of a Full Employment Economy

Episode 250

I spent most of last week fighting with a model. 

Before anyone starts googling “Nerdy Economist in Fashion Week Brawl”, I should clarify.  I was fig…

2 years, 8 months ago

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Will Job Market Strength Delay the Inflation Slide?

Episode 249

I think of myself as a pretty punctual person.  I get impatient when others are late and I don’t give myself much time to spare when catching a fligh…

2 years, 9 months ago

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Too Much Growth for Early Easing

Episode 248

This Friday, the groundhog will emerge unwillingly from his lair, examine the available evidence, that is to say, the presence or absence of his shad…

2 years, 9 months ago

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A Thaw in Sentiment

Episode 247

Last Friday, as much of America was settling in for the coldest weekend of the year, the University of Michigan released its preliminary January read…

2 years, 9 months ago

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