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“Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?” by Eric Neyman

Thanks to Jesse Richardson for discussion.

Polymarket asks: will Jesus Christ return in 2025?



In the three days since the market opened, traders ha…

1 year ago

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“Good Research Takes are Not Sufficient for Good Strategic Takes” by Neel Nanda

TL;DR Having a good research track record is some evidence of good big-picture takes, but it's weak evidence. Strategic thinking is hard, and requir…

1 year ago

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“Intention to Treat” by Alicorn

When my son was three, we enrolled him in a study of a vision condition that runs in my family. They wanted us to put an eyepatch on him for part of…

1 year ago

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“On the Rationality of Deterring ASI” by Dan H

I’m releasing a new paper “Superintelligence Strategy” alongside Eric Schmidt (formerly Google), and Alexandr Wang (Scale AI). Below is the executive…

1 year ago

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[Linkpost] “METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks” by Zach Stein-Perlman

This is a link post. Summary: We propose measuring AI performance in terms of the length of tasks AI agents can complete. We show that this metric ha…

1 year ago

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“I make several million dollars per year and have hundreds of thousands of followers—what is the straightest line path to utilizing these resources to reduce existential-level AI threats?” by shrimpy

I have, over the last year, become fairly well-known in a small corner of the internet tangentially related to AI.

As a result, I've begun making what…

1 year ago

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“Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in alignment evaluations” by Nicholas Goldowsky-Dill, Mikita Balesni, Jérémy Scheurer, Marius Hobbhahn

Note: this is a research note based on observations from evaluating Claude Sonnet 3.7. We’re sharing the results of these ‘work-in-progress’ investig…

1 year, 1 month ago

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“Levels of Friction” by Zvi

Scott Alexander famously warned us to Beware Trivial Inconveniences.

When you make a thing easy to do, people often do vastly more of it.

When you put …

1 year, 1 month ago

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“Why White-Box Redteaming Makes Me Feel Weird” by Zygi Straznickas

There's this popular trope in fiction about a character being mind controlled without losing awareness of what's happening. Think Jessica Jones, The …

1 year, 1 month ago

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“Reducing LLM deception at scale with self-other overlap fine-tuning” by Marc Carauleanu, Diogo de Lucena, Gunnar_Zarncke, Judd Rosenblatt, Mike Vaiana, Cameron Berg

This research was conducted at AE Studio and supported by the AI Safety Grants programme administered by Foresight Institute with additional support …

1 year, 1 month ago

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