Podcast Episodes
Back to Search“Slowdown After 2028: Compute, RLVR Uncertainty, MoE Data Wall” by Vladimir_Nesov
It'll take until ~2050 to repeat the level of scaling that pretraining compute is experiencing this decade, as increasing funding can't sustain the …
9 months, 3 weeks ago
“Early Chinese Language Media Coverage of the AI 2027 Report: A Qualitative Analysis” by jeanne_, eeeee
In this blog post, we analyse how the recent AI 2027 forecast by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean has b…
10 months ago
[Linkpost] “Jaan Tallinn’s 2024 Philanthropy Overview” by jaan
This is a link post. to follow up my philantropic pledge from 2020, i've updated my philanthropy page with the 2024 results.
in 2024 my donations fun…
10 months ago
“Impact, agency, and taste” by benkuhn
I’ve been thinking recently about what sets apart the people who’ve done the best work at Anthropic.
You might think that the main thing that makes …
10 months ago
[Linkpost] “To Understand History, Keep Former Population Distributions In Mind” by Arjun Panickssery
This is a link post. Guillaume Blanc has a piece in Works in Progress (I assume based on his paper) about how France's fertility declined earlier tha…
10 months, 1 week ago
“AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI to seize power” by Tom Davidson, Lukas Finnveden, rosehadshar
We’ve written a new report on the threat of AI-enabled coups.
I think this is a very serious risk – comparable in importance to AI takeover but muc…
10 months, 1 week ago
“Accountability Sinks” by Martin Sustrik
Back in the 1990s, ground squirrels were briefly fashionable pets, but their popularity came to an abrupt end after an incident at Schiphol Airport …
10 months, 1 week ago
“Training AGI in Secret would be Unsafe and Unethical” by Daniel Kokotajlo
Subtitle: Bad for loss of control risks, bad for concentration of power risks
I’ve had this sitting in my drafts for the last year. I wish I’d been …
10 months, 1 week ago
“Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG AGI?” by Tomás B.
Though, given my doomerism, I think the natsec framing of the AGI race is likely wrongheaded, let me accept the Dario/Leopold/Altman frame that AGI …
10 months, 1 week ago
“Surprising LLM reasoning failures make me think we still need qualitative breakthroughs for AGI” by Kaj_Sotala
Introduction
Writing this post puts me in a weird epistemic position. I simultaneously believe that:The reasoning failures that I'll discuss are st…
10 months, 1 week ago