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Conditions have rapidly deteriorated. Bad steepening has hit both ends. Rate cuts now close.
Episode 461
Both the Fed and ECB hiked rates this week (in successive days), each claiming inflation is still their greatest threat. German and Treasury markets …
3 years, 1 month ago
Everyone now betting on the avalanche as crisis worsens, completely ignoring final Fed rate hike.
Episode 460
Who cares about the Fed's (final) rate hike? You shouldn't. While chasing inflation risks that don't exist, instead markets are hedged and priced for…
3 years, 1 month ago
Bad banks. Bad data. Bad curves. Bad everything today as the crisis' next stage moves in.
Episode 459
Despite some relative calm yesterday after First Republic's failure, today was anything but as huge hedging in markets along with more turmoil in the…
3 years, 1 month ago
Deflationary fallout begins to emerge in this one place no one was expecting.
Episode 458
Deflationary fallout has become visible and almost unmistakable in the one place which was supposed to save us from that very outcome. China's econom…
3 years, 1 month ago
What it it's not just one or two, but all of them? The next step will be crucial.
Episode 457
Another major US bank failed - First Republic - and the markets barely moved because this is all in the context of deflationary money. If so, we know…
3 years, 1 month ago
There is a lot more going on here than just one, no two, now three banks.
Episode 456
First Republic finally fails and on the same day the Fed's report on SVB is released. It says SVB was on outlier, a loner. But that only raises more …
3 years, 1 month ago
We haven't seen anything like these in a couple generations.
Episode 455
Both the yield curve's 3-month/10-year spread and the Fed's near term forward spread have nose-dived in April. The former by far at a record extreme …
3 years, 1 month ago
We're about to become a lot poorer and worse off. Govt demands you to just accept it.
Episode 454
Bank of England's Chief Economist tells Columbia University podcast that people need to accept that they're poorer and worse off, and to stop trying …
3 years, 1 month ago
Fear grips markets as participants realize nothing was fixed from last month.
Episode 453
Major buying the curves has pushed them back down to and even below the worst points since mid-March. Markets have never been more certain about what…
3 years, 1 month ago
New data shows eruption from banking crisis. The gory details force mainstream media to acknowledge.
Episode 452
The transmission from deflationary money to a deflationary economy was always going to come from a credit crunch. Updated data shows the banking syst…
3 years, 1 month ago