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Is a Recession Yet to Come? (6/29/23)
(6/29/23) Yankee pitch a perfect game, as Bank Stress tests all reveal perfect scores(!); no bailout required. Yet. Markets are still betting on lower rates, but liquidity remains. Money market accou…
Published on 2 years, 2 months ago
Why Lower Interest Rates Are NOT Coming Back (6/28/23)
(6/28/23) Consumer confidence is on the rise, along with company expectations; the Fed says, "Drat!" Rising markets ease economic conditions, which will bring inflation back into the economy. Trade s…
Published on 2 years, 2 months ago
Could "Revised" Economic Data Drive Rates Higher? (6/27/23)
(6/27/23) The Quarter's end nears and markets face increased selling pressure as portfolio managers rebalance holdings. There is still room for a 5- to 10% correction this summer. MACD Sell signal is…
Published on 2 years, 2 months ago
Is FOMO Back as Markets Correct? (6/26/23)
(6/26/23) Weekend recap: The coup that was over before it started; everyone is now a deep-sea exploration expert. Thanks, Internet. End of Quarter dynamics are toying with markets: What will be seen …
Published on 2 years, 2 months ago
How You, too, Can Retire at 55 (6/23/23)
(6/23/23) HOUR ONE: Stories from Texas families; Market commentary: The Fed's Kabosh on Inflation: Muckflation; slow-grinding stagflation as liquidity is drained from the system. Why Roths are the J.…
Published on 2 years, 2 months ago
The Fed's Nirvana Moment (6/22/23)
(6/22/23) HOUR ONE: Investor sentiment vs Consumer sentiment: This is problematic for the Fed; a re-acceleration of Inflation? Housing is beginning to stabilize, with shallow inventory keeping prices…
Published on 2 years, 2 months ago
Will Student Loan Repayments Choke the Economy? (6/21/23)
(6/21/23) HOUR ONE: Two days of Fed speak commence today: Will markets even notice? Liquidity is still rising, easing economic conditions the Fed is trying to tighten. Update on the Titanic Sub Searc…
Published on 2 years, 2 months ago
Why AI is Little More than BS (6/20/23)
(6/20/23) HOUR ONE: It's the start of a holiday-shortened trading week, and the end of the Quarter is near. Sentiment reports from Consumers and Home Builders, plus leading economic indicators, which…
Published on 2 years, 2 months ago
What Happens to Fixed Income/Bonds if Fed Continues to Hike Rates? (6/19/23)
(6/19/23) [HOUR-2] When will real estate turn? It may take longer; will work from home become the new nor,? Valuations vs Sales: Explaning Chipotle. Excess liquidity is distorting valuations. What ha…
Published on 2 years, 2 months ago
Fed's Plans Thwarted as Consumer Confidence Improves (6/19/23)
(6/19/23) [HOUR-1] Consumer Confidence improves based on recent sales numbers; this would appear to be thwarting the Fed's plans to reign-in spending. End of the Quarter Rebalancing underway w AI eff…
Published on 2 years, 2 months ago