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What's Worse, Inflation Or A Recession?
Description
Inflation hit a 30 year high in Canada this month, and looks to continue that trend in the upcoming months. This further galvanizes the Bank of Canadas expected 50 basis point rate hike on June 1st, with more hikes anticipated, until, we enter a recession. You could argue the main indicators of a recession are already in place, being high interest rates, low consumer confidence, and stagnant wages or reduced real income in the labor market.
The rising interest rates are already making housing affordability even harder. The home price and mortgage rate increases over the last 6 months alone have made the average mortgage payment increase by $800. The last time it rose by that amount it took 6 years.
The early ramifications of the rapidly accelerating cost of living can already be seen. Ontario home prices were down 6% last month, Vancouver median and average prices are down 5% in May, the first drop in Canadian HPI price since April 2020 happened last month. Inventory is rapidly increasing and most notably, prices across Canada dropped with only 2.2 months of inventory. This has never happened. You have to go all the way up to 5 months of inventory to see the nearest price drop.
The question now is, which will break first (or the most), the economy or housing?
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