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Scott and Jeff discuss whether the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was effective. Often referred to as the Trump tax cuts, or the Trump Tax Reform, recent commentators have argued that it was highly effective. For example, Tyler Goodspeed and Kevin Hassett argued in the Wall Street Journal the TCJA "delivered as promised" by increasing investment, wages, and government revenues. Academic research, however, paints a more nuanced picture. Jeff keeps a list of academic studies that evaluate different aspects of the TCJA on the UNC Tax Center website called The TCJA Effects Tracker. We discuss why articles in the popular press that claim victory or defeat are almost always oversimplified.