Episode Details

This week in the podcast, our

latest thoughts on economic expectations, sentiment, and valuations. The big

things you need to know: First, the S&P 500 is still trading as though it’s

experiencing a growth scare, a framework that has been pointing to downside in

the S&P 500 to ~3,850. Current trends in economic forecasts continue to

support the idea that this is the right way to think about how far stocks

should fall. Second, institutional investor sentiment has made significant

progress catching down to retail investor sentiment, with overall US equity

futures positioning among asset managers now below 2020 & Great Financial

Crisis lows, and getting close to 2011 and 2015/2016 lows – something that

makes the case for a bottoming in stocks relatively soon if recession fears can

be kept at bay. Third, while valuations aren’t yet a reason to buy US equities

on their own, they are no longer a problem for the market as a whole.