Episode Details

Oxide and Friends Twitter Space: January 3rd, 2022

Predictions 2022

We’ve been holding a Twitter Space weekly on Mondays at 5p for about an hour. Even though it’s not (yet?) a feature of Twitter Spaces, we have been recording them all; here is the recording for our Twitter Space for January 3rd, 2022.

In addition to Bryan Cantrill and Adam Leventhal, our special guest on January 3rd included was tech prediction expert and noted Red Sox fan Steven O’Grady.

Below is a table of the oracles and their predictions: (If you made predictions, please submit a PR to add or clarify yours)

 Futurist  1 year  3 year  6 year
 | @openlabbott
47:15 |  Discord are going to annoy their userbase.  |  We’ll finally get a RISC V server in a datacenter, in some shape or form.  |  Email goes the way of the landline.
| @MattSci2
1:10:05 |  The framework laptop company will be unsuccessful. Existing laptops are not substantially different; with some retooling.  |  One major FPGA vendor will have a completely open toolchain for high end FPGAs.  |  At least 1 RISC-V supercomputer in the Top 500.
| @tomk_
1:16:45 |  At least one of the hyperscalers will become startlingly good at partnering.  |  Stablecoins will become regulated.  |  The biggest datacenter server provider (outside the hyperscalers) will be a company that hasn’t yet shipped its first server.
| @tinco
1:18:57 |  Multiple companies will have demonstrated a AGI (one shot machine learning system). It’s not gonna be useful for anything, but I think the problem is less hard than many critics think it is and several companies/organizations are actually going to be showing the first versions of these systems.  |  Drones autonomously flying around private properties will be a common thing. Factory managers, powerlines inspectors, large building sites etc. will have commonly available and affordable options to inspect or patrol their properties.  |  Web3 will actually happen, but not in the way it’s currently being talked about. In 6 years time bots will have improved to the point that they can not be warded off the major platforms (or any platforms) and will make the web absolutely unusable due to them disrupting all established crowd funded moderation systems. A new paradigm will have to emerge that fundamentally changes how we use the web (thus web3), so that we can still derive value from it.
| Ben Stoltz
1:24:40 |  Smart glasses become a viable alternative for computer monitors youtube. People who used to look away from their phones to have their own thoughts, and are now using smart glasses in real life situations, are subjected to an ads vs. attention “Tragedy of the commons”. As costs per unit decrease leading to ubiquity, this forces a modern-day “Highway Beautification Act” to legislate Ad Blocking.  |  A significant percentage of commercial office space will be converted to housing.  |  The best AIs have emotional problems. We don’t really know how they work. AI specialists are more therapists than programmers.
| @kelseyhightower

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