Episode Details

Risk is a word that is often used to describe a particular type of pregnancy, but how often do we actually stop to think about what that word means, and what it really tells us about the pregnancy?

In this episode, I explore what happens when a pregnancy is described as high risk or low risk, and how easily these labels can begin to influence the way we think about pregnancy and birth. Once a pregnancy has been given a particular risk label, it can be very easy to hear that label as a prediction of what is going to happen, rather than an assessment of the likelihood of particular outcomes.

I look at the difference between possibility, probability and certainty, and why being told that something is more likely does not mean that it is inevitable. I also explore why the word risk can feel particularly powerful during pregnancy, when the possibility of something happening to your baby can carry an enormous emotional weight.

A significant part of the episode looks at absolute risk and relative risk, including why the phrase “double the risk” doesn't tell you enough on its own. I share a few examples to understand why the starting point matters, how the same relative increase can represent very different absolute changes, and why asking “doubled from what to what?” can be such a useful question.

Another important question throughout the episode is risk compared with what? Pregnancy and birth rarely present us with a completely risk-free option. An intervention may reduce one particular possibility while introducing other potential consequences, while choosing to wait or continue with physiological processes also involves uncertainty. Understanding the risks and benefits of the different options allows you to see the whole picture rather than focusing on one possibility in isolation.

Because risk is not a prediction of what will happen. It is information about what might happen, and understanding the difference matters.

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