Episode Details

What happens when you freeze the evidence, hand two decision models the same 39 questions about Israel's election, and then add a table of Kalshi and Polymarket prices? Clef (open weights, Qwen backbone) and Jev (closed, API-only) both picked Likud and Netanyahu — until the market section went in, when both flipped to Yashar and Eisenkot, overshooting the market's own prices. The whole run cost one and a half cents. This is Part Six of the election series, built on Daniel's Israeli Elections repo, with every input hashed and frozen before the vote. Results get Brier-scored when the Central Elections Committee certifies on November 5. Episode 6202 — myweirdprompts.com/n/6202 (permanent short link: myweirdprompts.com/867145)