Episode Details

Israeli election headlines report tidy seat counts, but those integers hide enormous uncertainty. SekerKolshehu, a small open source project by developer Isgav Saranga, takes a poll's vote shares, draws 100,000 plausible variations, and runs each one through the actual Israeli allocation rules — threshold, surplus agreements and all. The result is a distribution: average seats, a 90% range, and the probability of every possible outcome. This episode walks through how the engine works, why it validates against a real past election, and where the model's uncertainty quietly ends. Episode 6200 — myweirdprompts.com/n/6200 (permanent short link: myweirdprompts.com/663806)