Episode Details

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news of a shambles on the streets in Paris and New Delhi, and a shambles in the US fiscal management.

But first, this week will feature our Q3-2026 CPI result, and although it may be lower than for Q2, it is likely to be a one-off in advance of a higher Q4 outcome. And this will come in advance of the RBNZ's pre-election OCR review review next week. There will also be a PSI and credit card data out this week.

In Australia, there is little economic data out this week although we will get PMI results.

In the US, it will be mainly about Q3 earnings reports even if doubts are growing about tech valuations. There will be PMI survey results, and a key consumer sentiment survey. From Canada we will be the September CPI result.

From China there will be a set of September data including Q3 GDP (expect +4.4%), industrial product data, along with a review of their official Loan Prime rates. In Japan, it will be all about  PMIs, factory production and inflation.

Singaporean (non-oil) exports surged a massive +25% in September from August to be +68% higher than year-ago levels which themselves were already elevated and up +21% at that time. They rose from S$61.5 bln in September 2025 to S$93.2 bln in September 2026 on the back of electronics and machinery. A big destination was "Hong Kong", so a back-door for AI gear into China. Meanwhile their imports rose +48% from a year ago.

In India, the street protests by disgruntled youth is still very active, even expanding, despite (or because of?) arrests of the movement's leaders. Of course, street protests in France are ongoing too.

In the US, industrial production was up +2.2% in September from a year ago, better than August's +1.6% gain and better than expected. A significant part of the gain was the +6.7% rise in "business equipment" where the data center buildout activity is covered. Production of "consumer goods" were actually -0.1% lower than a year ago (and that includes cars), although construction and mining had good gains.

Not positive was the New York Fed's services survey which reported that business activity declined significantly in October with firms especially pessimistic about the outlook ahead.

The latest US federal government accounts show a -US$2 tln deficit in the fiscal year ended September. This is its highest level since the pandemic, as spending on their mil