Episode Details

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where a contract at 37 cents reads as a 37% implied probability. But the US military's own intelligence bulletin called prediction markets an "underutilized dataset" for national security analysis — even as US users are barred from trading. This episode walks the read-only path: the Gamma, CLOB, and Data APIs, the unified TypeScript and Python SDKs, the archived py-clob-client that's dead at 1,228 stars, and the rate limits that silently throttle your pipeline. Then we put it to work on live Israeli election markets, where a seat-count market and a prime minister market can both favor the same candidate while describing entirely different worlds. We also cover the calibration problem: an audit of top Polymarket wallets found the biggest winners were the worst-calibrated. Volume is not wisdom. A price is a sensor, not an oracle. Key sources: • Polymarket official docs (rate limits, geoblock, markets/events, order lifecycle) — https://docs.polymarket.com/llms-full.txt • API overview, base URLs — https://docs.polymarket.com/getting-started/api • Gamma/CLOB/Data/Relayer/WebSocket/Bridge services — https://docs.polymarket.com/api-reference/predictions/overview Episode 6086 — myweirdprompts.com/n/6086 (permanent short link: myweirdprompts.com/492632)