Episode Details

AI is used to predict elections in three very different ways: Bayesian statistical models like Nate Silver's and The Economist's, "silicon sampling" where LLMs roleplay survey respondents, and massive agent societies that simulate public opinion. Each has a wildly different track record. This episode digs into what's open source, what's been graded in public, and why the best benchmark for any election simulator is an actual election — which almost none of them are willing to face in advance. Episode 6076 — myweirdprompts.com/n/6076 (permanent short link: myweirdprompts.com/586334)