Episode Details

Israel votes in nine days, and the people who try to call the result before it happens are a small, famous, and fiercely debated cast. This episode maps the polling culture from Louis Guttman's late-1940s research institute through Mina Tzemach, Camil Fuchs, and the pollsters behind every major channel today — including the Channel 14 polls that the rest of the industry watches nervously. It also revisits the nights that made and broke reputations: 1977's Mahapach, the 1996 "went to sleep with Peres, woke up with Bibi" reversal, and 2015's six-seat miss. Along the way: why Israeli polls have consistently underestimated the right, what the refusal rate at exit polls actually tells us, and why a 500-person sample with a four-point margin of error gets argued over seat by seat. With the legal publication blackout about to fall, this is a look at who's on the hook when the numbers land. Episode 6075 — myweirdprompts.com/n/6075 (permanent short link: myweirdprompts.com/138057)