Episode Details

Fastenal (FAST) Q3 2026 — FAST closed at $50.38 on October 15, down 3.1% from the prior close; release clock unconfirmed. Fastenal grew quarterly profit 19.7%, but cash after gross capital spending grew only 6.4%. Customer collections and investment decide how much growth reaches owners. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MEDIUM) — Rounded cash-led base DCF ~$26 vs ~$50.38 October 15 closing common share price. KEY METRICS: - Revenue $2,463.3m, +15.5%; net income $401.6m, +19.7% - Operating cash $421.6m; gross-capex FCF $347.6m, +6.4% - Receivables grew 19.9%; net cash $111.9m excluding leases - SELL, conviction 3/5; cash-led base anchor $26; reference price $50.38 What to watch: Reassess near $20.80 only with intact cash quality; watch receivable days, CFO conversion, gross margin and capital productivity. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/fast-q3-2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.