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Chart of the Month Oct 2026 - U.S. MARGIN DEBT FLASHING AN OMINOUS SIGN
Description
Welcome to Chart of the Month for October 2026 with The Contrarian Capitalist and Tom Bradshaw.
4 small bits of housekeeping
* This video was recorded on Thursday 15th October 2026 PM UK Time.
* None of this is to be constituted as investment or trading advice. We are NOT financial advisors.
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The importance of Margin Debt (adjusted for M2 Money Supply)
5 Key Takeaways for those that don’t have time to watch the full video (done via AI)
* Margin debt (adj. for M2) at record highs — now ~7% above 2000 and ~15% above 2007 peaks.
* Danger zone breached — above $1.2T previously triggered 50% (dot-com) and 58% (2007) market crashes.
* Record time in danger zone — already 12 months (vs 9 months pre-2000, just 3 months pre-2007).
* Explosive recent surge — up 71% in the last two years, matching the momentum seen before the last two major bubbles.
* High risk of severe deleveraging — history points to a potential 50%+ market drop; time to de-risk and hold cash.
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