Episode Details

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) Q4 FY2026 — CMC traded near $67.93 in early trading, up 4.04% versus the prior close; this is a frozen intraday snapshot, not a closing return. Steel margins expanded and annual cash generation improved. Yet precast missed expectations, taxes flattered EPS growth, and acquisition debt still matters. We test what the bigger portfolio must earn to justify the price. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$70.00 vs ~$67.93 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 revenue $2,658.3M, +25.7% YoY - Core EBITDA $393.7M, +35.1% YoY; company non-GAAP - GAAP EPS $1.91; adjusted EPS $2.09 - North America metal margin $652/ton - Precast adjusted EBITDA $57.0M, below prior expectations - FY2026 operating cash flow $1,059.0M; capex $579.8M; computed FCF $479.1M - Ordinary net debt $2,605.2M; separate litigation reserve $377.3M What to watch: Steel spreads hold, precast recovers after seasonal weakness, and free cash flow improves while net debt falls; otherwise require a material discount. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/cmc-q4-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.