Episode Details

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Q3 2026 — At 8:35 a.m. CDT on October 15, TSM traded at $411.27, down 4.36% from the previous close. This is an intraday snapshot, not the final session return. TSMC delivered strong growth and cash conversion. A prior-quarter investment gain complicates the earnings comparison, while cash-flow and earnings valuations give very different answers. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM) — Three-route fair-value anchor ~$410 vs ~$411.2678 at 8:35 a.m. CDT on October 15 (intraday). KEY METRICS: - Q3 revenue US$46.72bn; NT$1,494.24bn, +50.9% YoY - Operating margin 58.7%; attributable profit NT$763.06bn - Operating cash NT$919.77bn; issuer free cash flow NT$476.56bn - Q2 VIS gain NT$63.20bn complicates sequential profit comparison - Q4 revenue guidance US$52.3–54.3bn - HOLD; fair-value anchor $410; scenario weighted value $409.50 What to watch: A 25% margin of safety implies $307.50 with the thesis intact, or reassess on sustained cash margins above the model. Watch Q4 revenue $52.3–54.3bn and operating margin 56.5–58.5%. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/tsm-q3-2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.