Episode Details

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Q3 2026 — Reference price $1,717.76 is the October 13 pre-release Nasdaq close; no current earnings-day reaction is asserted. ASML delivered a stronger operating quarter, but the surging cash inflow includes a large working-capital contribution and net income includes an investment gain. We separate recurring earnings from timing and show what the share price already assumes. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$1650.00 vs ~$1717.76 at the October 13 pre-release close. KEY METRICS: - Revenue €11,662.0M, up 55.2% year over year - US GAAP operating income €5,172.8M, up 109.6% - Gross margin 57.5%; prior Q3 guidance 55–57% - Net income €4,960.4M includes €509.7M investment gain - Operating cash flow €11,797.6M includes €7,009.0M changes in assets and liabilities - FCF €11,350.4M after PP&E and intangible purchases - Q4 sales guidance €14.2–15.2B; gross margin around 57% - HOLD; fair value $1,650; reference $1,717.76; weighted scenario value $1,725 What to watch: Reconsider near $1,320 with the thesis intact, or on stronger recurring earnings evidence. Test Q4 revenue €14.2–15.2B, gross margin near 57%, and cash conversion after working-capital timing. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/asml-q3-2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.