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Rates spike, spreads diverge, and power infrastructure reshapes industrial
Description
Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai work through the latest economic data that's reshaping commercial real estate: labor weakening in office sectors, construction capital concentrating almost entirely in data centers, and the 10-year treasury closing at 5.29% - the highest since 2002. Credit spreads tell an interesting story, diverging sharply between investment-grade and high-yield. The back half dives into Cole's research on power infrastructure and industrial pricing: whether proximity to power generation actually moves property values, how that premium has shifted since 2022, and what it signals about where industrial demand is headed.
Key moments:
02:00 Labor data
05:30 Consumer confidence falling, personal savings at record lows
11:50 Treasury yields spike to 5.29%
13:40 K-shape in credit spreads
18:50 CRE sorting market
20:30 Fundamentals remain strong
28:00 Power infrastructure research
Resources:
Cole Perry - https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/
Omar Eltorai - https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index - https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/sp-cotality-case-shiller-index-reports-annual-gain-in-july-2026/
Consumer Confidence - https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
GDP (Third Estimate) - https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Personal Income and Outlays - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026
September Employment Situation - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
ADP National Employment Report - https://adpemploymentreport.com/