THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Wednesday Watchlist | October 7th, 2026

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for October 7th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: When the three hundred thousand metric ton beef import plan was announced, cattle country reacted fast. Major producer groups warned that additional imports could pressure cattle prices, discourage herd rebuilding and bring a wave of cheaper foreign beef into the U.S. market. A month in, that wave has not shown up. Only thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons of September's one hundred thousand ton allocation was used. Depending on how incremental supply is measured, estimates suggest only about eight thousand to twenty-two thousand metric tons may actually have represented beef that would not otherwise have entered the U.S. That does not mean the concerns were misplaced. Imports matter, and they will continue to matter. But the headline number was always much larger than what the physical market was likely to deliver overnight. We said when the plan was announced that there was a lot of rhetoric surrounding the three hundred thousand ton number. September gave us the first real test. Politicians will always make promises. The market decides what actually moves.

HOST: Executive summary. Beef continues to send mixed signals. Cattle futures surged Tuesday and forward fed supplies remain tight, yet domestic nineties continue to soften. Pork is facing growing production against a dramatically smaller Chinese import market. Chicken remains comparatively steady with production still above last year, while feed and diesel costs are moving back onto the radar.

SHAWN: The lean-beef market remains one of the biggest contradictions in the protein complex. U.S. cow and bull slaughter through October 3rd totaled three point nine four four million head, down four point six percent from 2025 and fifteen point four percent from 2024. Despite that reduced domestic cow supply, fresh nineties have slipped toward four oh two. Imported lean remains substantially cheaper. Australia and New Zealand nineties have been indicated around three thirty-seven, F-O-B Philadelphia. South America near three oh five. November Australia and New Zealand around three nineteen, C-I-F Philadelphia. Even at those discounts, grinders continue to favor nearby inventory rather than aggressively reaching forward for imports. September's one hundred thousand metric ton allocation filled only thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons. As of October 5th, just two thousand one hundred eighty-one metric tons had entered against October's allocation. S and P Global Energy CERA estimates total use of the entire three hundred thousand ton program could ultimately remain below one hundred fifty thousand metric tons. The rest of the grind complex is not moving uniformly lower. USDA called fresh eighty-fives sharply higher, averaging three forty-eight, while fresh fifties averaged ninety-two cents. For grinders, the opportunity remains in the spread.

HOST: December live cattle jumped four dollars twelve cents Tuesday to two twenty-four ten. November feeder cattle gained eight fifteen to three thirty-eight twenty-seven. The physical beef market was far less dramatic. Choice closed at three seventy-eight ninety-three, up sixty-seven cents. Select fell two twenty-three to three fifty-six thirty-four. The Choice Select spread widened to twenty-two fifty-nine. Nearby beef availability has improved as slaughter recovered. Forward cattle availability has not. That is the tension showing up in futures. Beef-on-dairy is becoming more than a head-count story. Genetics work shows sire selection can materially influence carcass weight and yield. Dairies can affect not only how many cattle eventuall