Episode Details

Constellation Brands (STZ) Q2 FY2027 — Reference price $115.91 is the October 6 pre-release quote at 3:59:59 p.m. Eastern; no completed post-print session is asserted. Beer shipments rose 5.5% while depletions fell 0.6%. Comparable profit dollars were flat, even as a smaller share count lifted EPS. We test whether the sales rebound can become a durable demand recovery. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$130.00 vs ~$115.91 today. KEY METRICS: - Net sales $2,633M, up 6.1% computed YoY - Comparable EPS $3.74; comparable income $637.3M versus $637.8M - Beer shipments +5.5%; depletions -0.6% - Beer operating margin 39.0%, down 160 bps - H1 FCF $1,124.5M; FY27 guide $1.6–$1.7B What to watch: Positive beer depletions, shipment/depletion gap below 3 points, beer margin at least 38%, and FY27 FCF floor $1.6B maintained; price-only margin-of-safety threshold $104. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/stz-q2-fy2027 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.