Episode Details

Recording date: 3rd October 2026

Olive Resource Capital distils two weeks on the autumn conference circuit into a clear message. The gold sector has moved past exuberance into a more disciplined phase. Producers have the cash to buy, but genuine bargains are harder to find.

Samuel Pelaez, Olive's President, CEO and CIO, said attendance at the Precious Metals Summit in Beaver Creek matched or exceeded last year's, with meeting rooms spilling into tents. The mood was optimistic but more measured than in 2025, when Hemlo's roughly $1 billion raise exemplified the market's appetite. Executive Chairman Derek Macpherson, who held close to 50 meetings on behalf of West Point Gold, said the most telling signal came from corporate development teams. They appeared to be actively hunting for assets rather than gathering information, in one case sending a CEO to a first meeting. Because producers are rarely first movers, Olive reads their activity as confirmation of a maturing cycle.

The cycle is now shaped by capital allocation. At Mining Forum Americas, Macpherson saw no weak balance sheets among the majors and mid-tiers presenting, reflecting about 18 months of exceptional profitability. Almost every presentation opened or closed on capital allocation. Macpherson's explanation is structural. Gold ETFs such as GLD, GDX and GDXJ now give generalists liquid exposure without single-stock risk, compressing producer multiples. Each major must therefore prove it allocates capital better than a passive product. Agnico Eagle was the standout example.

M&A provided the backdrop. Artemis Gold's proposed all-share acquisition of Vista Gold, valued at $427 million for roughly 10.5 million ounces at Mt Todd, works out at about $40 per ounce. Macpherson contrasted that with roughly $400 per ounce in G Mining Ventures' deal for G2 Goldfields. Pelaez said the deal mainly shows Artemis intends to be a buyer, further thinning the list of quality targets. The deal is expected to close in January 2027.

The headline event was Gold Fields' approach for Northern Star Resources, which Northern Star's board rejected. The offer was worth about A$27 per share when made but had slipped towards A$25 as Gold Fields shares fell, against a Northern Star price of A$22 to A$23. Olive doubts Gold Fields can raise its offer meaningfully without damaging its own shareholders. The list of alternative bidders is short. Newmont could afford it, Barrick is preoccupied with its breakup, and Agnico Eagle is the most credible candidate given its Australian presence and premium multiple.

Olive is acting on that view. It is buying Northern Star on three grounds: a post-capex turnaround under incoming CEO Suresh Vadnagra, a price floor implied by Gold Fields, and a lower-probability chance of a rival bid. The fund previously exited on Australian diesel supply concerns, but conference conversations eased those worries.

Olive also signalled appetite to add to two existing holdings. Bravo Mining's Luanga PFS shows a post-tax NPV of about $1.45 billion against an estimated enterprise value near $300 million and close to $100 million in cash. K92 Mining continues to beat conservative guidance and, in Olive's view, offers funded growth that is not yet fully priced in.

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