Episode Details

Cold storage vacancy just hit 7.7% in H1 2026, the first negative net absorption in a first-half period since 2007. 

This headline masks a bifurcated market: modern facilities built since 2020 are absorbing demand at 10.9% vacancy, while legacy 1980s and 1990s-era properties are bleeding, holding 68% of all vacant cubic feet nationally. Occupiers are fleeing older stock for modern buildings with higher clear height, better power capability, and automation-ready infrastructure. Cold storage build costs run 130-350 per square foot versus 85-150 for dry warehouse, and weighted average taking rents have grown over 100% since 2020 to $27.40/SF. Last-mile fulfillment is consolidating. E-commerce growth has matured, with occupiers now moving to fewer, larger facilities. The average new cold storage development under construction is nearly 300K SF, but the average lease being signed is only 125K SF, creating a 175K SF gap per deal. That extends lease-up times and creates leverage risk for operators. But there's one bright spot: pharma cold-chain demand. 

GLP-1 U.S. sales went from $7.7B in 2022 to $49.5B in 2025. Temperature-sensitive biologics are projected to grow at 8.3% CAGR through 2033. It's a completely different occupier type with different economics and geography. The thesis is clear: industrial isn't as healthy as the headline seems. Legacy assets are obsolete. Last-mile is consolidating, but pharma cold-chain is becoming a serious opportunity for the right operators.