Episode Details

Where is the Bitcoin price really heading, and does the power law still point to Bitcoin reaching millions? 

Stephan Livera joins Honest Money to explain his outlook on Bitcoin's price, why adoption is slower than he once believed, and what the power law model projects for the decades ahead.

Stephan explains how his thinking on Bitcoin adoption has shifted over eight years, why he now meets people wherever they enter the funnel, from ETFs to self-custody, and what the power law suggests about Bitcoin reaching roughly a million dollars in the early 2030s and around ten million by 2045. Along the way he reflects on the long game of Bitcoin, surviving your first bear market, community infighting, and what the Coldcard hack really means for self-custody.

🎙️ EPISODE SUMMARY

Stephan and Anja discuss Bitcoin's price trajectory, the power law, bear markets, and self-custody.

The conversation moves from eight years of podcasting, through his long-term conviction on Bitcoin as money, to how he now sees adoption as a broad funnel rather than an all-or-nothing choice. He explains why he likes the power law as a grounding model over the debunked stock-to-flow, and what it projects for Bitcoin's price into the 2030s and 2040s.

The episode also covers why the first bear market is the hardest and why dollar-cost averaging through it matters most, the exhausting community infighting around BIP-110 and spam, the quantum-security consortium forming around Bitcoin, and why, after the Coldcard hack, Stephan believes multi-vendor multisig is the real long-term answer to self-custody.

🔑 KEY TAKEAWAYS

The power law projects Bitcoin near a million dollars in the early 2030s and ten million by 2045
Stephan favours the power law as a grounded model over the debunked stock-to-flow
Bitcoin is not get rich quick, it is a five to ten year, multi-decade process
The first bear market is the hardest, and DCA through it matters most
He has evolved on "Bitcoin only" while keeping his long-term conviction
Adoption is a broad funnel, from ETFs and custodians to full self-custody
Community infighting over BIP-110 and spam burned out many builders
After the Coldcard hack, multi-vendor multisig is his long-term self-custody answer

⏱️ CHAPTERS

00:00 Intro: Bitcoin's Path to Millions
05:09 Bitcoin Only, With Nuance
15:07 The Hybrid Car Theory of Adoption
18:21 Bitcoin as a Broad Adoption Funnel
23:45 Why Bitcoin Isn't Get Rich Quick
30:50 Do the Price Models Actually Work?
34:47 Surviving Your First Bear Market
37:30 Infighting, BIP-110, and Spam
43:45 Institutions and the Next Fork Fights
46:16 The Quantum Security Consortium
48:38 Self-Custody After the Coldcard Hack
52:31 The Continual Learning Journey
56:56 Community Questions: Lightning in Australia
01:01:43 Final Thoughts: A Multi-Decade Process

🔗 FEATURED LINKS

Stephan Livera on X: https://x.com/stephanlivera
Stephan Livera Podcast: https://www.stephanlivera.com/

🔗 AFFILIATE LINKS

Buy Bitcoin in Australia With a $10 Sign Up Bonus
HARDBLOCK: https://hardblock.com.au/join/honestmoney

Learn to Acquire, Secure, and Manage Your Bitcoin
MINERACKS: https://www.mineracks.com/honestmoney

Shop Signing Devices, Bitaxes, Nodes, Apparel, and More
SHOP BITCOIN AUSTRALIA: https://shopbitcoin.com.au

Collaborative Security, Inheritance Planning, and Retirement Strategies
THE BITCOIN ADVISER: https://thebitcoinadviser.com/honest-money

Reached Terminal Bitcoin? Borrow Against Your Bitcoin Without Selling
LOAN MY COINS: https://www.loanmycoins.com/honest-money

📌 ABOUT THE HONEST MONEY SHOW

The Honest Money Show explores the forces shaping our financial world, from monetary systems and personal finance to Bitcoin. Through in depth conversations with builders, thinkers, and educators, the show challenges mainstream narratives and p