Episode Details

Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) Q3 FY2026 — Saved October 2 intraday reference: $3.165; this is not the completed earnings-session return. Trilogy Metals reported a small profit without producing copper. A derivative gain drove the bottom line, while the closed government investment funds the next work program rather than the mine build. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$2.09 vs ~$3.165 today. KEY METRICS: - Q3 net income $0.244M; derivative gain $11.564M - Loss excluding derivative mark $11.320M (our diagnostic, not issuer adjusted earnings) - August 31 cash $31.209M; current cover shares 181.361M - Trilogy government proceeds $17.8M committed to Ambler Metals - Our fair value $2.09; illustrative scenarios $0.89–$3.50; very high uncertainty What to watch: Reassess on a current capital-cost estimate and credible project finance, retained permitting milestones, year-end cash and dilution; lower price helps only with the thesis intact. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/tmq-q3-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.