Episode Details

The old fund model ran on a conveyor belt: buy, execute, sell, distribute, repeat. Higher rates snapped that belt, and the industry stopped waiting for it to restart.

On the capital side, real estate secondaries just hit a record $20.3 billion in 2025, up 39%, with GP-led structures jumping 60% to $14.5 billion, 72% of the entire market. More than $2 trillion of NAV remains locked in closed-end funds and joint ventures, and Ares expects secondary volume to double over the next several years.

Meanwhile, at the asset level, Dallas-Fort Worth led the entire nation in apartment absorption, nearly 20,000 units net absorbed by midyear, more than New York and Phoenix combined territory. Rents stayed flat at $1,496, down half a percent, while demand outran deliveries. Two of September's three big DFW apartment trades involved assets with recent foreclosure histories.

The LP who wants out no longer needs the building sold. The buyer who wants in no longer needs the market healed. Liquidity is being manufactured at both ends of the stack.