Episode Details

Vail Resorts (MTN) Q4 FY2026 — Saved regular-session reference $138.07; no post-release reaction asserted. Vail generated $248M of free cash flow while paying $317M in dividends and $45M in buybacks. Advance pass dollars are down 6%. Can the guided recovery close the shareholder cash gap? THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$125.00 vs ~$138.07 at the saved regular-session reference. KEY METRICS: - FY2026 FCF $248.001M = $479.626M OCF minus $231.625M capex - Dividends $317.131M plus buybacks $45M; funding gap $114.130M - Advance pass units -12%, days -10%, dollars -6% - FY2027 resort EBITDA guidance $805M–$865M - Net debt $2,917.907M; NCI book proxy $316.871M - Unresolved board contest; no activist premium modeled What to watch: Final pass dollars stabilize, annual FCF covers distributions, and guided operating recovery converts to cash. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/mtn-q4-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.