Episode Details

Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) cuts RKEF smelter output 60-70% — El Niño drought restricts cooling water; some lines at 30-40% capacity; 50,000-70,000 tonnes NPI at risk over 2 weeks; Nickel Industries Excelsior HPAL at 30% (rainfall 4mm vs 222mm August average); INSG 32,000t 2026 deficit forecast pre-disruption; Indonesia 62% of global mined nickel; SMM quote (Sep 22-24 2026). Kinross Gold cuts 2026-27 production guidance — 1.84-1.86M oz vs 1.9-2.1M oz prior; La Coipa winter storms + metallurgical issue (CIL recoveries ~30% on copper-rich sulphide, Jefferies 50,000 oz/yr estimate); Round Mountain lower grades/rates; shares -13% Thursday; AISC $1,850-$1,900/oz; FCF return target raised to 50% (~$800M); Paracatu + Tasiast 1.1M oz on track (Kinross press release Sep 23; Northern Miner Sep 24). Barrick Loulo-Gounkoto Mali — September 28 strike begins TODAY; 4-day worker walkout + 5-day catering + 72-hour regulatory agency; no resolution announced; Barrick 80% / Mali 20%; full-year guidance 2.9-3.25M oz (Reuters Sep 18 2026). Sources: - SMM / Indonesia Business Post — Morowali 60-70% cut: https://indonesiabusinesspost.com/7430/energy-and-resources/morowali-smelters-scale-back-operations-by-60-70-amid-water-shortages-smm-says - Bloomberg — Indonesia nickel hub cut: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-22/indonesia-nickel-hub-to-cut-production-on-el-nino-driven-drought - Northern Miner — Kinross guidance cut: https://www.northernminer.com/news/kinross-gold-cuts-output-boots-shareholder-payout/1003895099/ - Yahoo Finance — Kinross shares tumble: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kinross-gold-shares-tumble-weaker-182900809.html - Reuters — Barrick Mali strike: https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/multiple-unions-threaten-strikes-barricks-flagship-mali-gold-mine-documents-show-2026-09-18/