Episode Details

AI, data centers and lumber? They're more connected than you might think.

Dustin Jalbert, Economist and Director of Wood Products & Timber at Fastmarkets, joins The Lumber Word to break down a North American lumber market where supply, imports, species and demand are all shifting at the same time.

The conversation digs into falling Canadian and European imports, changing U.S. lumber availability, Southern Pine and western-species substitution, sawmill residuals and what the headline lumber numbers may be missing.

Then Dustin takes us into one of the biggest economic stories affecting housing: the enormous investment flowing into AI and data centers. He explains how that boom can compete with residential construction for capital, labor and resources, influence inflation and interest rates, and ultimately affect housing and lumber demand.

The episode closes with the indicators Dustin believes lumber participants should be watching — and a moving tribute from Matt to longtime lumberman Dick Opperman.

Same industry. Deeper conversations.

TIMELINE
00:00 — Where is the lumber market right now?
The crew opens with inventories, falling prices, freight costs and slowing seasonal demand.
05:03 — AI and lumber? A preview of what's coming
Dustin explains why seemingly unrelated parts of the economy eventually intersect with lumber.
~08:00 — Canadian duties and the supply question
What changing Canadian lumber duties could mean for production, curtailments and SPF returning to the
U.S. market.
13:17 — Lumber imports are falling
The Fastmarkets data on Canadian and offshore imports and why apparent supply doesn't necessarily
equal actual consumption.
15:23 — Canada and Europe disappear from the supply picture
Dustin breaks down where billions of board feet have shifted and why the numbers need context.
18:06 — Who benefits from fewer imports?
U.S. producers, Doug Fir, Southern Pine and the changing competitive landscape.
19:11 — Is species substitution coming back?
Matt discusses SPF, Hem-Fir, Doug Fir and how modern purchasing systems changed the industry's willingness to substitute species.
21:25 — Southern Yellow Pine's changing position
Why the SYP market can tell a very different story from the lumber futures screen.
25:05 — Sawmill residuals: why chips and sawdust matter

Dustin explains the economics of residuals and why they're an important part of keeping a sawmill
profitable.
34:08 — MAIN EVENT: AI, data centers and housing
The conversation turns to the enormous capital flowing into AI infrastructure.
35:34 — Why lumber people need to pay attention to AI
Dustin explains how AI investment is contributing to broader economic growth and why that matters to
lumber.
~37:00 — Data centers competing with housing
Capital, labor and other resources get pulled toward massive data-center projects.
38:42 — Can AI help keep interest rates higher?
Dustin connects growth, inflation, Treasury yields, fiscal deficits and the AI investment boom.
40:12 — The AI wealth effect
How stock-market gains may be supporting higher-income consumers and helping create a floor under
housing demand.
42:00 — Housing affordability & cash buyers
Mortgage rates, demographics and why some buyers can still participate despite historically difficult
affordability.
44:02 — Work from home changed housing demand
Dustin discusses mobility and how remote work has permanently altered where some people can live.
46:03 — What happens next for lumber?
Matt summarizes the pressures hitting the industry and the potential for volatility.
47:04 — Remembering Dick Opperman
Matt gives a heartfelt tribute to a longtime lumberman, friend and mentor — and a reminder to thank the
people who helped you along the way.
49:37 — What lumber peop