Episode Details

//The Wire//2300Z September 25, 2026//
 //ROUTINE//
 //BLUF: RUSSIA AND UKRAINE INCREASE MUTUAL TARGETING EFFORTS OVERNIGHT. HOUTHIS ATTEMPT TO STRIKE SAUDI TARGETS, ALL MISSILES INTERCEPTED. AMERICAN ASPIRATIONS FOR INTERVENTION IN CUBA CONTINUE TO MOUNT.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

 
 -International Events-

Baltic Sea: Tensions are high as a series of escalations have remained constant between NATO and Russia. Overnight a flight of Russian Tu-134 transport aircraft being escorted by fighters was observed patrolling over the Gulf of Finland, prompting Finland and Sweden to scramble fighters to intercept and identify the Russian aircraft.

Analyst Comment: This was the first time a joint identification mission was carried out between Finland and Sweden, but more generally this is a routine mission set and not really anything out of the ordinary. However, as the tensions around the continent remain high and European leaders have issued serious statements over the past few days urging war, these standard identification missions are usually the tip of the spear in terms of the potential for sharp escalations to occur. Fighter aircraft intercepting each other tends to be an opportunity for nations to keep up more active "foreign relations", and an increase in flights over international waters tends to be a barometer for determining how serious nations are with regard to their rhetoric. As it stands, a lot of bluster is going around between NATO and Russia, which will probably get more intense over the next few weeks.

Russia: Overnight, Ukraine increased attacks on Russian infrastructure in retaliation for last night's strikes in Kiev. Ukrainian drones targeted petroleum refineries in Perm and Rostov. A chemical plant was also struck in Voronezh, and a factory was hit in Ulyanovsk. In response, Russia continued strikes in and around Kiev, most notably targeting a McDonald's warehouse.

Analyst Comment: The strikes conducted by Ukraine were the most significant reported in a few weeks, all of which were conducted hundreds of miles from the front lines. The continual Ukrainian strikes on Russian petroleum infrastructure despite President Trump's order to cease these attacks is quite interesting, and highlights the frustrations within the United States regarding the administration of the war. At the moment, many are pointing the finger at Zelensky for his open defiance of the United States regarding strikes on Russian refineries, but reading between the lines in a larger sense, these strikes are also probably not explicitly and solely Zelensky's decision. Looking within, if the US genuinely wants to stop diesel refineries from getting hit (even Russian ones) a quick phone call to Langley is probably more effective in stopping Ukrainian targeting than anything else.

China: Yesterday the National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in the price of gasoline and diesel, raising the national price cap for the second time in two weeks, bringing fuel prices to levels roughly 24-26% higher than pre-war levels.

Middle East: Overnight Houthi forces launched a total of 6x ballistic missiles toward various targets in Saudi Arabia. Saudi forces intercepted all missiles, with no impacts being reported on the ground.

Analyst Comment: Thankfully for the Saudis, this time missile defenses were effective at neutralizing the threat. However, this latest attack has strained the newly-signed Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, which is a mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. Both Pakistan and Turkey are in a tough spot, because this new agreement is essentially the Arab version of NATO's Article 5 in that an attack on one, is treated as an attack on all. Neither Turkey nor Pakistan want to become involved in the Houthi crisis, and as a result have treated the Houthi problem as a "preexisting condition" which is not covered by their new defense polic