Episode Details

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Q4 FY2026 — An early after-hours trade was $897.02 at 16:29 ET on September 24, about 0.06% above the $896.48 regular close; this was not a completed post-print session. Costco delivered 12.4% normalized EPS growth after removing a $0.15 non-recurring tariff-refund benefit. The business remains exceptional, but the early price requires roughly 18.5% annual owner-cash growth for five years in our reverse model, well above the recent 11.7% free-cash-flow CAGR. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$850.00 vs ~$897.02 today. KEY METRICS: - Q4 total revenue $95.723B, up 11.1% YoY - Reported EPS $6.75; normalized EPS $6.60 after removing a $0.15 tariff-refund benefit - Adjusted comparable sales +6.7%; digitally enabled comps +19.8% - Paid memberships 84.1M; worldwide renewal 89.8% - FY2026 free cash flow $9.390B; net cash $15.139B - Early after-hours reference $897.02 at 16:29 ET September 24 - Base value $850; market-implied five-year cash growth about 18.5% What to watch: Adjusted comps at least 6%, paid memberships up at least 3.5%, worldwide renewal at least 89.8%, digital growth at least 15% and net cash above $14B; analyst thresholds, not guidance. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/cost-q4-fy2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.