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AI Winners, Losers and Wannabes: Valuing AI's Boost to NVIDIA's Value!
Description
It is undeniable that AI has boosted stock prices across the board, and specifically so for companies that are core beneficiaries. I look at one of the perceived winners, NVIDIA, to estimate the AI effect on value, and whether the market price has overshot the mark. To set up the story and valuation of the company, I start by looking at both the semiconductor business over time and NVIDIA place in that business. NVIDIA has been able to post high growth in a maturing business by being in the right place at the right time - gaming, crypto and now AI, and my story/valuation of the company is built on the presumption that it will continue to be an opportunistic growth company, that deliver premium operating margins. Notwithstanding the optimistic tilt, I find the company over valued, though it is possible to map out pathways to get to a trillion dollar value.
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/NVIDIA2023.pdf
Valuation: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/NVIDIA2023.xlsx
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