Episode Details

At the start the 2023, the conventional wisdom was that 2023 would be trying year for stocks and bonds, not only because both asset classes were coming off a terrible year in 2022, but also because inflation looked untamable and the economy seemed to be headed into a recession. It should come as no surprise that markets surprised investors on almost every front: stocks surged in 2023, interest rates leveled off and the economy held its own. In this session, I take stock at the half-way point of the year to look at how stock returns varied across regions, sectors and stock classes and note that almost all of the rise in markets has come from large cap, money-making companies, with the tech giants leading the way. I also look at what the rest of the year looks likely to deliver, providing tentative (sorry, but my macro forecasting skills are lousy) views on inflation and the economy, and a measure of the intrinsic value of the S&P 500 on July 1, 2023. (No suspense: Given earnings forecasts for the index and current interest rates, stocks are close to fairly priced).
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Blog Post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2023/07/market-resilience-or-investors-in.html
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Midyear2023.pdf
Valuation Spreadsheet for valuing the S&P 500: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/S&P500ValueJuly2023.xlsx

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