Episode Details
Back to EpisodesGIS Stock: Flat Sales Hide a $99M Profit Gap — Q1 FY2027
Published 3 weeks, 2 days ago
Description
General Mills (GIS) Q1 FY2027 — Saved September 23 intraday quote $35.74, +0.82% from prior close; the session was not complete.
Flat organic sales hide a $99M segment-profit decline in Retail and Pet. International and Foodservice offset only $18.3M. Can stabilization become profitable growth?
THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE) — base-case value ~$37.00 vs ~$35.74 today.
KEY METRICS:
- Revenue $4,389.5M, down 2.83%; organic sales flat
- Adjusted operating profit $634.0M, down 10.85%
- Adjusted EPS $0.75, down 12.79%
- Retail and Pet segment profit declined $99.0M combined
- International and Foodservice profit improved $18.3M combined
- Pet organic volume −6 pts; margin 16.2% versus 18.5%
- Free cash flow $207.3M; net debt $13,182.5M by primary-line arithmetic
- FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance $3.00–$3.20; HOLD, $37 base value
What to watch: Retail organic sales ≥0%, Pet volume ≥−2 pts and margin ≥17%, with cash conversion progressing toward 95%; reconsider near $29.60 only with the thesis intact.
Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/gis-q1-fy2027
Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha
DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.