Episode Details

The cattle market has taken producers on a wild ride, but are we finally getting close to the bottom of the current cattle cycle? Derrell Peel, Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Oklahoma State University, joins Cattle USA Daily again today to break down where the market stands heading into Q4 and what producers could see in 2027. Derrell explains why herd rebuilding has been so slow, how drought and high capital requirements are affecting producers, what the Mexican border reopening means for cattle supplies, and why tight feeder cattle supplies could continue supporting the market.

Links:

Derrell Peel at OSU: https://experts.okstate.edu/derrell.peel

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Key Takeaways:

• U.S. cattle inventories appear to be getting close to the bottom of the current cycle
• Drought, high interest rates and larger capital requirements have slowed herd rebuilding
• Strong supply and demand fundamentals could support the cattle market through Q4
• The Mexican border reopening is expected to add cattle supplies gradually rather than all at once
• Tight feeder cattle supplies could support calf and feeder cattle prices into fall
• Heifer retention is beginning to show signs of increasing but rebuilding will take time
• Policy cannot overcome the biological timeline required to rebuild the cattle herd
• Packing industry disruptions could have significant economic consequences across the cattle supply chain
• Strong beef demand and tight supplies continue to provide support for cattle markets

Chapters:

02:06 Where the Cattle Market Stands
03:13 Why Herd Rebuilding Has Been So Slow
04:52 What to Watch Heading Into Q4
06:34 Mexican Border Reopening
09:18 Will Mexican Cattle Trade Return to Normal?
10:57 Tight Feeder Supplies & Fall Prices
13:15 What Herd Rebuilding Means for 2027
15:06 Can Policy Speed Up Herd Rebuilding?
16:38 Packing Industry & Market Structure
19:18 Input Costs & Producer Economics
21:42 Derrell’s Outlook for the Cattle Industry

Derrell Peel, Catt