THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Monday Market Open | September 21, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for September 21, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Where are the cattle going to come from? That’s the question Friday’s Cattle on Feed report left me asking. August placements were down nine percent, roughly one hundred fifteen thousand head below expectations. We covered the numbers in our special report, but I keep coming back to what happens when those missing cattle would normally be ready for slaughter. And here’s what makes this market interesting. USDA fresh nineties are at four oh eight. Fifties are under ninety cents. And we have another one hundred thousand metric tons of import quota opening October first. There may be opportunities to get some buying done before the supply picture catches up with us. But six forty-four diesel can eat into a good purchase pretty quickly, and an import offer isn’t much good if it arrives after you need the meat. I’m looking at what I can buy now — and what I may wish I’d bought six months from now.

HOST: Friday’s Cattle on Feed report raised new questions about fed-cattle availability heading into twenty twenty-seven. Domestic fat trim remains inexpensive relative to lean. Another one hundred thousand metric tons of import quota opens October first. Elevated diesel costs are changing delivered protein economics. Pork bellies declined sharply. Chicken frames softened. Whole wings moved slightly higher.

SHAWN: USDA reported August placements of one point six one seven million head, down nine percent year over year and about one hundred fifteen thousand head below pre-report expectations. Lowest August placement total since the current series began in nineteen ninety-six. September first feedlot inventory eleven point one six three million, about one percent above last year. August marketings declined three percent to one point five one nine million. With about forty-three percent of August placements weighing eight hundred pounds or more, the timing of those cattle reaching slaughter will matter just as much as the headline placement number.

HOST: What concerns Shawn is the combination of fewer cattle entering feedlots and an industry already processing substantially fewer head. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down seven point five percent. Beef production is down five point one. Heavier carcasses offset part of the slaughter reduction. They cannot replace every missing animal.

SHAWN: The domestic processing-beef market presents an interesting contrast. Latest national weekly fresh nineties four oh eight. Eighty-fives three twenty-nine. Fifties under ninety cents. For a manufacturer producing seventy percent lean ground beef, equal pounds of nineties and fifties generate a theoretical raw-material cost of about two forty-nine a pound before freight, processing, shrink, and margin. We can have a legitimate longer-term cattle supply problem and still find interesting purchasing economics in the current ingredient market. Kansas State’s Glynn Tonsor points to continued consumer interest in beef taste and quality, while higher prices put more pressure on lower-income households. I would not assume premium steaks and value-oriented ground beef will respond identically.

HOST: Chicken. Modest increase in the national whole-bird average. Parts moved in different directions. Frames declined two oh seven cents to seven fifty-nine cents. For processors using frames in mechanically separated chicken and other recovery applications, that could improve raw-material economics. Recovery yield, processing expense, and finished-product value determine how much of the lower purchase price rea