Episode Details

Abivax S.A. (ABVX) Q2 2026 — September 21 saved close $103.45, down 1.51% from $105.04. SEC acceptance metadata and the issuer release dateline conflict, so no reaction baseline is claimed. Abivax now has funding into Q4 2029 and a planned obefazimod NDA, but nearly $8.6B of diluted value above capital leaves little room for execution mistakes. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM) — base-case value ~$110.00 vs ~$103.45 today. KEY METRICS: - Q2 net loss €117.433M; H1 operating outflow €102.509M - June liquidity €402.4M; July net proceeds €767.1M - Management runway into Q4 2029 - Post-offer ordinary shares 87.177M; diluted 95.449M - Planned UC NDA by end-2026; Crohn’s topline mid-2027 - HOLD 3/5; $110 base / $112.50 weighted / $45–$185 cases What to watch: Submit the UC NDA by year-end, maintain the Q4 2029 runway, control burn, deliver mid-2027 Crohn’s data and explicitly remediate the internal-control weaknesses. Full research packet: https://chargedalpha.com/research/abvx-q2-2026 Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.