Episode Details

In this session, I use the end of the third quarter of 2023 as an opportunity to look at economic and market movements during the quarter, and to try to make judgments about what the last quarter has in store. After the economy and markets delivered positive surprises in the first half of 2023, the third quarter was split in two halves, with the first six weeks of the quarter a continuation of the optimism of the first half of the year, and the second six weeks representing a return to a more dour mood. Coming into the fourth quarter, the uncertainties about inflation and the economy that existed at the start of the year remain, in large part, unresolved,. While the market looks close to fairly valued, given consensus earnings estimates and interest rates today, your judgment will change based on whether you think inflation will remain stubbornly high (subside) and on whether you think the economy is headed for a recession (soft landing).
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/EquitiesOct2023.pdf
Blog Post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2023/10/market-bipolarit-exuberance-versus.html
S&P Valuation Spreadsheet: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/S&P500ValueOct2023.xlsx

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices