Episode Details

EP 183: Nobody Wants Lumber — Even With Inventories Running on Fumes

Episode 183 Published 3 weeks ago

Description

The lumber market is heading into Q4 with an unusual setup: inventories across the supply chain appear extremely lean, yet buyers still aren't willing to take much risk.

In Episode #183, Ashley, Matt, Gregg and Charles dig into what's actually trading versus published prices, growing price disparities between mills, tightening truck availability, rail issues and the increasingly important role of freight. The group also breaks down housing starts, builder headwinds, interest rates and what declining demand could mean for mill production and lumber prices into year-end.

With 2x4 looking increasingly vulnerable while several other items remain historically expensive, the conversation turns to the real question for Q4: What should you own, what should you sell, and where is the opportunity?

Timeline

00:00 Housing & the Q4 Setup

02:03 Lumber Inventories Running Low

04:03 Less Lumber Than Last Year?

06:06 The Hedging Problem

08:04 Trucking Gets Ugly Again

11:07 Hem-Fir, SPF & Real Prices

13:05 Futures vs. Cash

14:23 Huge Mill Price Disparities

15:37 Are Contract Buyers Overpaying?

16:24 Southern Pine Pricing

19:04 Freight Becomes the Wild Card