Episode Details

Imogen Bachra shares her take on to watch in the week commencing 21 September. 

• Fed speakers take centre stage
  A full slate of Federal Reserve speakers will provide further insight following this week’s more hawkish-than-expected Fed meeting. Markets watch for signs of how closely policymakers’ views align with the latest dot plot and whether the more hawkish tone is broadly shared. NatWest has revised its Fed call and now expects an additional rate hike by the end of 2026, while removing its previously expected 2027 rate cut.
• Bank of England speakers in focus
  Sarah Breeden and, in particular, Clare Lombardelli will be closely watched following last week’s BoE meeting. Lombardelli is seen as an important swing voice within the MPC, so comments on the potential triggers and timing for a rate hike will be particularly relevant. NatWest retains its call for a November rate hike, although conviction has fallen from around 85% before the meeting to approximately 70%.
• UK public finances ahead of the Budget
  The latest public finance figures will be one of the final key data points before the October Budget. Borrowing so far this fiscal year is running above the OBR’s March projections. Higher bond yields and inflation have also reduced the government’s fiscal headroom, increasing the focus on the data. Public finances are not normally a major market mover, but the proximity to the Budget means they are likely to receive greater attention.
• European data takes a back seat
  The European data calendar is relatively light, with survey indicators dominating. The week’s releases are unlikely to materially change the broader macroeconomic narrative.
• France and political risk
  Political and fiscal developments in France remain an important market focus, with French assets having underperformed significantly. Investors will be watching for any budget-related headlines and developments as discussions evolve.