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Gas is at $4.44 nationally, up nearly 50% since this war started in February. Diesel just hit a record $6.40, up 77 cents in the first two weeks of September alone. In California diesel is already at $8 a gallon. Sean, Joe and I break down exactly why this is happening and why I do not think it comes back down anytime soon.

Here is what most coverage misses. Crude oil is not the story. Diesel is. Diesel is the single most universal tangible input in the American economy, it moves your groceries, your packages, your construction materials, everything. And the reason diesel and gasoline are climbing faster than crude is that refined fuel is explosive, so almost nobody is lining up to haul it through the Strait of Hormuz right now. Freight captain crews have gone up eight times in cost because of the risk. Ukraine keeps hitting Russian refineries. Exxon just shut down its Joliet plant entirely after a power outage. Refining capacity is disappearing while demand keeps going.

Then there is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. We peaked at 726 million barrels in 2009. We were at 415 million as recently as March. We are now around 285 million, the lowest level since 1983. Under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act there is a hard legal floor at 252.4 million barrels, below which the president cannot do routine drawdowns without declaring a national energy emergency. We are getting very close to that number.

And we close on China. Their crude imports collapsed when this war began, which quietly kept global prices from spiking even harder. Now those imports are ticking back up. Whether that is pure economics or something more strategic, the result is the same. Supply comes off an already tight market.

If you have not filled your heating oil tank for winter, I would do it now.

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