Episode Details

We are in the midst of a preference cascade about existential risk from AI.

A preference cascade is, alas, the best method we have to change the debate.

The avalanche has started. There is still time for the pebbles to vote. For now.

Mike Solana gave the correct view of why Coxon's post went viral, which is that enough Americans finally have enough context on AI to care, and there were enough big accounts that were happy to amplify the Tweet quickly to get it initial attention. That is all you need when there is enough dry tinder.

What we must realize is that the current preference cascade, on the need to Pace the Frontier, is insufficient. If we are to make it out of this alive, we will have to do better. We have to, as Dan Selsam warns, actually solve the underlying problems.

The next step is to continue the cascade. That includes inside the labs, and also among the media and politics. It includes both people who previously focused on other things stepping up and new voices being heard.

A lot of that will be overcoming the inevitable political opposition [...]

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Outline:

(01:38) The Cascade Was a Long Time Coming

(02:59) The Cascade Has Reached The People

(04:38) Elon Musk Doubles Down

(05:18) Matthew Yglesias Steps Up

(08:42) Op Eds and Posts Are Written

(11:05) Jacob Coxon AMA

(17:35) Bilal Chughtai Quits DeepMind and Sounds the Alarm

(20:29) The Cascade Is Insufficient

(21:47) What Would It Take

(28:10) OpenAI's Dan Selsam Sounds A Louder Alarm

(41:59) Some People Worry On Meta Levels You Never Imagined

(43:10) Two Kinds of Threats

(44:41) The Two Towers and The Narrow Path

(46:45) A Specific, Detailed Story About AI Killing Everyone That Doesn't Sound To Me Like Science Fiction

(50:06) What Can I Do About It?

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First published:
September 18th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sDiSqZmctQ78hsLcP/the-preference-cascade-is-only-getting-started

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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